Larry Ness Wednesday
Larry's 7* CAA Showdown
Few will forget George Mason's Final 4 run a few years back and with Jim Larranaga on the bench, the Patriots will always be a dangerous team, especially in the CAA. However, GMU has "come back to the pack" and this year's Huskies have all five starters back from last year's team. Bill Coen took his team on an extended trip through Canada this August and September and he believes it has made the team much better. The Huskies have won EIGHT of their last 10, losing only at Memphis and this past Saturday, 57-52 at Hofstra. Losing to the Pride in a revenge game (Huskies beat Hofstra on Jan 5 in Boston) is hardly considered a 'bad loss.' Two 6-4 guards form an excellent backcourt in Janning (14.9-4.6-2.8) and Allen (10.0-5.2-3.1). Up front, it's 6-9 center Ojougboh (8.0-5.1) surrounded by a pair of 6-8 forwards, Adako (11.7-4.5) and Spates (6.9-2.5). GMU lost forward Thomas and swingman Campbell from LY's team (both were part of that Final 4 team as well) but the 6-7 Monroe (10.5-9.1) is back healthy TY after missing last season with an injury. The 6-7 Birdsong (7.9-43.2) and 6-6 freshman Pearson (7.1-4.2) join Monroe inside. The backcourt has solid depth with seniors Vaughan (11.1-3.9) and Smith (8.5-3.4) joined by sophomore Long (11.6-4.4-3.5) and freshman Cornelius (6.6). Mathews Arena (6,000 capacity) is a tough place to play, as the Patriots found at last year in a 70-59 loss. The Patriots are not a great rebounding team and they still lack a legit "go-to" threat. Northeastern can play pretty good defense and its frontcourt should be able to contain Monroe and Co. inside. Linemakers realize this as LY the Huskies were a small home dog in their home game vs the Patriots, while this year they've been installed as the small favorite. The adjustment is correct but I still expect the Huskies to win this one with some "room to spare."
CAA Showdown on Northeastern.
Oddsmaker's Error - NCAAB
The Gators lost at Fla St back on Dec 7 and fell out of the top-25. However, they haven't lost since and with 10 straight wins, are back in the top-25 this week at No. 24 with a 16-2 mark. That being said, head coach Billy Donovan will not have to be reminded that last year's team opened 18-3 but lost eight of its final 11 games and got left out of the NCAA tournament for the first time in a decade. South Carolina is thinking NCAA tourney this year as well, after back-to-back 14-win seasons. Darrin Horn, of Western Kentucky fame, is the school's new head coach and at 12-4, he's got the Gamecocks on pace for 20-win season. The Gators are led by the 6-6 Calathes (17.7-5.2-6.4) who is joined in the backcourt by senior Hodge (7.7) plus two freshman, the 5-8 Walker (8.9) and Shipman (4.2). Up front, the 6-8 Tyus (12.7-6.4), the 6-7 Werner (9.4-4.2) and the 6-9 Parsons (8.6-5.1) also get some help from a freshman, the 6-10 Kadji (5.4-2.8). The Gators are on quite a roll, holding opponents to 64.2 PPG while winning by an average margin of 17.5 PPG during their 10-game run. However, this will only be the team's fourth true road game all season. The Gamecocks are 10-1 SU at home (only loss came to Clemson) and while the team's frontcourt is a little undersized, three 6-7 players will not back down from the Gators here in the Colonial Center. Archie averages 11.6-7.3, Holmes 11.6-8.1 and Banilus 7.6.-3.0 (leads team with a FG percentage of 55.8). Downey (19.6-4.3 APG) and Fredrick (16.3) are an excellent guard duo with Raley-Ross (6.7) adding nice depth. Florida is "ripe for the taking" in this one, having just returned to the polls and playing only its fourth road game. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are tough to beat here in Columbia and after losing two close games to the Gators last year (73-71 and 85-82) will be primed to spoil Florida's return to the national rankings. I expect a 10-point win, meaning this price is way off.
Oddsmaker's Error on South Carolina
Larry's Conference 10*
I 'rode' Nebraska to an easy 73-51 home win last Saturday over Kansas St, noting that the 'Huskers were 10-1 at home (now 11-1), losing only right before Christmas (12/23), when Maryland-Balt Co. came to Lincoln and shot 57.1 percent in a two-point win. I was "right on the money," as Nebraska shot 50% vs the Wildcats, including 10-of-18 from three-point range. I also noted in that analysis that Doc Sadler's Nebraska team is an odd one, which basically starts five guards. The 6-5 Dagunduro (10.8-3.8) and the 6-4 Anderson (4.8-4.5) are the team's best rebounders and six players average 23-plus minutes (McCray gets about 18 minutes, averaging 7.1-3.4), The 5-11 Harley (12.4-3.6) is the team's leading scorer, followed by Dagunduro, the 6-3 Henry (9.5-3.4) and the 6-2 Velander (9.6). Winning at home in Lincoln is one thing but winning on the road is another, especially here in Norman at the Lloyd Noble Center. Nebraska won its first road game this year (at TCU) but has lost its three road games since. The Cornhuskers didn't come close at Arizona Sta (lost 64-44), while also losing at 6-10 Oregon St and in their first Big 12 road game at Iowa St. The Sooners are 17-1 and ranked sixth, led by p-o-y candidate, the 6-10 Blake Griffin. Griffin averages 22.0-13.4 and is joined up front by his older brother, the 6-7 Taylor (9.1-6.1). The Sooners have two big guards, 6-5 freshman Warren (15.5) and 6-6 senior Crocker (10.4) plus a solid PG in Johnson (7.7-4.4 APG), who was just named Big 12 Player of the Week for the first time on Monday. The Sooners have opened Big 12 play 3-0, sandwiching an impressive 78-63 home win over Texas with road wins at Kan St and Tex A&M. Oklahoma's lone loss this year came on Dec 30 at Arkansas (lost 96-88), when the homestanding Razorbacks not only shot 51.7 percent from the floor but also were awarded 43 FTs (made 30) to Oklahoma's 22 (made 11). Imagine that? Oklahoma will well-remember last year's embarrassing 63-45 loss at Lincoln, in a game the Sooners were held to just 37.0 percent shooting. I'll note that Nebraska is holding teams to 40.1 percent shooting and 55.8 PPG, which ranks second in the nation. However, the Sooners can play some defense too, limiting opponents to 37.7 percent shooting from the floor this year (ranks 14th) plus the 'Huskers will have a hard time holding Oklahoma from scoring here in Norman (Sooners are averaging 79.6 PPG on the season, including 83.1 PPG here in Norman, where they are 10-0 SU). Oklahoma's won the last four meetings here in Norman over the Huskers and win No. 5 in a row comes with relative ease.
Conf 10* in the Big 12 on Oklahoma.
